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<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Andrew Aspland
[mailto:aaspland@y...]<BR><B>Sent:</B> 28 September 2004
17:12<BR><B>To:</B> bellhistorians@yahoogroups.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> [Bell
Historians] 'Bell weights' A mathematician responds<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=214055615-28092004>Glad
we have cleared up the "quarter of a quarter" problem. Assuming that
bell weights randomly end in any number of pounds from 0 to 27 then there is a
4/28 = 1/7 probability that the weight will end in 0,7,14 or 28. This is
a reasonable assumption given teh range of weights we are considering but
would not be true for very small bells. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=214055615-28092004></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=214055615-28092004>For
a ring of six to all end in such a number the probability would be 1/7^6 which
is 0.000008499 in other words less than a 1 in 100 000 chance - be VERY
suspisious. Even for a ring of four this is less than a 1 in 2000
chance.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=214055615-28092004></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=214055615-28092004>For
all six bells to end in 0 (Shaftsbury) the probability would be 1/28^6 which
is 0.000000002 or around a 1 in 500 000 000 chance. Statistically I do
not believe that Shaftsbury all ended in 0.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=214055615-28092004></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=214055615-28092004>For
any two bells out of eight to end in 0 is a less than 4% chance - worth
checking!</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=214055615-28092004></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=214055615-28092004><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT
size=2>Andrew<BR><SPAN
class=452370413-29092004></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=214055615-28092004><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT
size=2><SPAN class=452370413-29092004><FONT color=#000000>Try this one for
size then - London, St Dunstan's, Stepney. In 1952 bells 1, 4, 8 were recast,
and the remainder retuned by Whitechapel. Chris Pickford says that
Whitechapel's records indicate that all the weights of the bells - which are
exact - end in "0", except for the 4th and the 8th.
</FONT></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=214055615-28092004><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT
color=#000000 size=2><SPAN
class=452370413-29092004></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=214055615-28092004><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT
color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=452370413-29092004>I believe that Shaftesbury
Holy Trinity were also retuned and weighed by Whitechapel. Perhaps Nigel
Taylor could re-check the records for these two sometime, before Mr. Aspland's
calculator explodes trying to calculate the probabilities
involved?</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=214055615-28092004><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT
color=#000000 size=2><SPAN
class=452370413-29092004></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=214055615-28092004><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT
color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=452370413-29092004>Andrew
Bull</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=214055615-28092004><FONT face=Arial><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT
color=#000000 size=2><SPAN
class=452370413-29092004></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN> </DIV><!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| --></BLOCKQUOTE>
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