[r-t] Proportion of Surprise Methods
richard at ex-parrot.com
Thu Mar 19 16:08:22 UTC 2009
Richard Smith wrote:
> with 1456 now allowed at the first division end, and 1236 at the second,
> these change to about 1/9 to be TB, 4/9 to be S, and 5/9 to be D.
Spot the typo. Obviously the last fraction should have been
> If we go further and allow up to four consecutive blows in one place, we
> would expect these ratios to remain approximately the same. And this is
> indeed what happens. There are 378,916 grids in total, of which 47% (179,941)
> are S, 10% (36,721) are TB and 43% (162,254) are D.
And if anyone's interested what happens when we allow an
arbitrary number of consecutive blows in one place, there
are 1,166,400 methods of which 518,400 (that is, precisely
4/9 of the total) are Delight, another 518,400 are Surprise,
and the remaining 129,600 are Treble Bob. This works out
exactly because there are no longer any restrictions that
prevent the division-end changes from being selected
independently. All that remains are the following
- standard treble dodging treble path;
- normal parity structure (sufficient, though not
necessary, for producing an extent);
(Requiring a normal parity structure together with a
palindromic lead implicitly requires a double change at LE
1,166,400 is 1080 squared, though the methods are not simply
every overwork coupled with every underwork. This is
because of the requirement to keep a normal parity structure
in the middle division (i.e. when the treble is in 3-4).
Specifically, if we have (say) x5x over the treble, we could
not have x2x (the same thing upside-down) under the treble:
we would need either 222 or xxx under.
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